Views on Ontario’s Real Estate Markets Surge

Ontarians are feeling decidedly more upbeat about the state of the province’s economy than they were last fall –  newfound positivity that is helping to dramatically boost confidence in residential real estate markets, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA). Twice a year, OREA’s Ontario Homeownership Index takes the pulse of Ontarians’ perceptions of home ownership and real estate markets at the neighbourhood, city and provincial level. In the latest wave of tracking, the Index has surged by 27 points to 129, the largest upswing in sentiment since tracking began in 2013.

Real Estate Markets Seen as Favourable, Strengthening

Ontarians are significantly more likely to see residential real estate markets as ‘favourable’ (rating it a 6-10 out of 10) at all levels compared to the previous wave of tracking in November 2015: 58% say residential real estate markets in their city or town are ‘favourable’ (+8 pts), while 57% say the same about the market in their neighbourhood (+7 pts) and 56% about the overall residential real estate market in Ontario (+6 pts).

Further, Ontarians are seeing their local real estate market strengthening over time. Half (49%) see their neighbourhood real estate market as significantly stronger compared to one year ago (+10 pts), while nearly as many (48%) think it will be stronger still in another twelve months’ time (+11 pts).

Views were similar for residential real estate markets more broadly:

• ‘The residential real estate market in your city or town’: 50% say stronger compared to one year ago (+10 pts); 48% say will be stronger one year from now (+10 pts), 52% say will be stronger in next ten years (+5 pts)
• ‘The overall residential real estate market in Ontario’: 48% say stronger compared to one year ag (+11 pts); 43% say will be stronger one year from now (+7 pts), 48% say will be stronger in next ten years (+1 pt).

“With significantly-improved perceptions across all markets and timeframes, it is clear to see why the index has posted its biggest gain to date,” says Sean Simpson, Vice President, Ipsos Public Affairs “As home prices and sales figures throughout the province continue to astound, it is encouraging to see the Ontarians are feeling optimistic about economies and real estate markets, both locally and provincially.”

Rebound in Economic Confidence Driving Upturn

This brighter picture of residential real estate markets is closely linked to Ontarians’ more positive views about the shape of their local economy.

“The last time Ipsos polled on Ontario real estate, perceptions of the province’s economy were more negative,” says Simpson. “Midway through 2016, the economic mood has improved considerably, and while there is undoubtedly still room for improvement, opinion has rebounded, likely carrying perceptions of the real estate market along with it.”

Six in ten Ontarians (63%) see the economy in their city or town as ‘good’ (rating it a 6-10 out of 10), up 12 points since the previous wave. More than half (55%) rate the economy of Ontario as a whole as ‘good’ (+7 pts). Economic perceptions are among the strongest in the GTA where 70% of respondents say their city or town economy is good (+10 pts) and 63% say the same for Ontario’s economy (+11 pts). That said, opinion about the local city or town economy is also up significantly in Central (51%; +17 pts) and Eastern Ontario (71%; +19 pts).

Regional Survey Highlights

Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

• 70% of GTA residents described the state of their city’s economy as ‘good’ (66% last year)
• 63% of GTA residents describe the current residential real estate market in their city or town as favourable (66% last year)
• 59% of GTA residents described the residential real estate market in their city or town as ‘stronger’ compared to one year ago (49% last year)
• Looking ahead to the next year, 59% of GTA residents said the real estate market in their city will be ‘stronger’ (46% last year)

Central Ontario

• 51% of Central Ontarians described their city’s economy as ‘good’ (39% last year)
• The number of Central Ontarians to describe the current residential real estate market in their city or town as ‘favourable remains unchanged from last year at 53%
• 48% described the residential real estate market in their city or town as stronger than a year ago (up from 30% last year)
• One third (31%) said the real estate market in their city will be stronger in the next year (34% last year)

Eastern Ontario

• 71% of Eastern Ontarians described the state of their city’s economy as ‘good’ (63% last year)
• 48% of Eastern Ontarians described the current residential real estate market in their city or town as ‘favourable’ (58% last year)
• 32% of Eastern Ontarians described the real estate market in their city as ‘stronger’ compared to one year ago (21% last year)
• 29% say the market will be stronger in the next year, down from 34% last year

South West Ontario

• 54% of South Western Ontarians described their city’s economy as ‘good’ (42% last year)
• 61% of South Western Ontarians described the current residential real estate market in their city or town as ‘favourable’ (58% last year)
• 50% of South Western Ontarians say the real estate market in their city is ‘stronger’ compared to one year ago (up from 36% last year)
• 50% said the real estate market will be stronger in the next year (37% last year)

Northern Ontario*

• 47% of Northern Ontarians described their city’s economy as ‘good’ (26% last year)
• 40% of Northern Ontarians said the current residential real estate market in their city or town was ‘favourable’ (42% last year)
• 21% of Northern Ontarians say the real estate market in their city/town is stronger than it was one year ago (24% last year)
• 24% said the real estate market in their city/town would be stronger in the next year (22% last year)

*denotes small base size (under n=100)

Read a copy of the full Ipsos factum.

Methodology

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between May 31 and June 2, 2016, on behalf of the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA). For this survey, a sample of 1,006 Ontarians from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.  In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontario adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

About The Ontario Home Ownership Index

The Ontario Home Ownership Index is designed to reflect Ontarians’ overall views of the residential real estate market in Ontario, and incorporates measures such as Ontarians’ perceptions of whether the market in their neighbourhood, city, and Ontario, respectively, have improved or worsened in the last year and looking ahead into the future, whether home ownership is important to them and whether it is a good investment in the long-term. The first wave of the index, conducted in the fall 2013, was set to a baseline of 100 points.

About the Ontario Real Estate

The Ontario Real Estate Association represents over 64,000 brokers and salespeople who are members of the 40 real estate boards throughout the province. OREA serves its REALTOR® members through a wide variety of professional publications, educational programs, advocacy, and other services. www.OREA.com